May 14 pandemic report: 1 less death, 1 fewer hospitalizations, 1 less case in Fayette

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Here’s the Covid-19 pandemic report from the Georgia Department of Public Health for 1 p.m., May 14.

GA total cases — 35,858 (+613); GA deaths — 1,527 (+34); death rate — 4.2%

Hospitalizations — 6,345 (+117); ICU admissions  — 1,513 (+33)

Total tests — 285,881 (+11,977)

Fayette cases — 201 (-1); Fayette deaths — 11 (1 fewer than past several days, no explanation for change) (no deaths since May 8)

Fayette hospitalizations — 35 (1 fewer than previous several days, no explanation for the change) (no additional admissions since May 6)

Fayette death rate per 100K — 9.4


 

Why does a number go down?

The subtraction of one case from the numbers of confirmed positive Covid-19 reports involving Fayette County points to the sometimes uncertain diagnosis of a very ill patient in a hospital setting during a pandemic involving a virus never seen in humans before last year.

From one day to the next, the Georgia Department of Public Health deleted one case from the Covid-19 reported numbers for Fayette County. The result was the confirmed case numbers went down 1 (from 202 down to 201), the hospitalizations went down 1 (from 36 to 35), and the total of fatalities went down 1 (12 to 11). In addition that changed Fayette’s death rate from 10.2 per 100,000 population down to 9.4 deaths per 100K.

Though we may never know the exact details because of strict privacy laws about health matters, one could surmise that one very sick person went to the hospital, was admitted, submitted to a Covid-19 test, was reported to DPH and then at some point died. At some other point, either the test turned out to be a false positive or other data came to light that made the Covid-19 diagnosis unsupportable. That’s likely when somebody in the last day or so notified DPH and said, “Change the report, it’s not coronavirus.”

How did that happen? Here’s what DPH says about this whole process: ”Healthcare providers diagnose patients with Covid-19 and they, along with laboratories, report the Covid-19 cases to the Georgia DPH. These numbers are preliminary and may change as more information is gathered on a person under investigation. Data during the period reported may be incomplete due to the lag in time between when the case was tested and/or reported and submitted to the Georgia DPH for reporting purposes. This delay can vary depending on the testing facility and/or jurisdiction. ”

That’s likely why the numbers today for Fayette show one less Covid-19 case, one fewer death and one less hospitalization. And why Fayette’s Covid-19 death rate went down nearly a half point.


The graphs below represents a Fayette County close-up of cases over time in the first graph, and Fayette deaths over time just below that, the first time we’ve presented the data in a graphical way at the county level.

<b>Graph of Fayette County Covid-19 cases over time, beginning at Feb. 23 and progressing through the late date and case number plotted, May 7.</b>
Graph of Fayette County Covid-19 cases over time, beginning at Feb. 23 and progressing through the last date and case number plotted, May 7.


Graphs below show magnified recent portions of statewide cases over time and Covid-19 deaths over time. According to DPH, the Covid-19 cases over time “is meant to aid understanding whether the outbreak is growing, leveling off, or declining and can help to guide the Covid-19 response.”


Below is a DPH chart of Covid-19-related deaths that have occurred in Fayette County since the start of the pandemic. The chart still lists a total of 12 deaths, although the DPH as of May 14 has reported that one of the deaths below did not result from Covid-19. The department has not said which one, and its May 14 list of deaths by counties still carries 12 fatalities. The chart lists from left to right the age of the victim, the sex, the county, and yes or no or unknown as to whether the victim had an underlying medical condition:

Total test-confirmed cases statewide: 35,858, which is 613 more than the previous day’s total of 35,245, an increase of 1.7%. All of Georgia’s 159 counties are now reporting coronavirus cases. For perspective, more testing results in more cases being reported, which does not necessarily indicate whether a pandemic is increasing or decreasing in intensity.

Statewide deaths: 1,527, an increase of 34 fatalities over the previous day’s total of 1,493. (Note: Weekend reporting has shown some lag in the past with fewer reported numbers compared to weekday reports, whereas early week reports show some catch-up of lagging reports.)

State Covid-19 death rate: 4.2% of all confirmed cases reported, slightly over 4 deaths for every 100 test-confirmed cases. The death rate has been inching upwards in recent days, measured in tenths of a percentage point.

√Fayette County: Confirmed infections  —  202 cases (no more confirmed cases than the previous day’s 202) with 12 deaths, unchanged from the previous day. Fayette’s confirmed case rate: 171.8 cases per 100,000 persons. Fayette death rate per 100,000 population: 10.2. Hospitalizations: 36, same as the previous day.

Coweta County: Confirmed infections  — 280 (1 more case than previous day’s 279) with 4 deaths. Coweta’s confirmed case rate: 184.2 cases per 100,000 persons. Coweta death rate per 100,000 population: 2.6. Hospitalizations: 47.

Hospitalized: 6,345 cumulative total of all Covid-19 hospitalizations statewide from the beginning of the pandemic to today, which is 17.6% of the total cumulative confirmed cases to date, compared to 6,228 cumulative total one day earlier, an increase of 117 newly hospitalized patients (increase of 1.8% over the previous day) across the state of Georgia. The data do not indicate how many patients that were admitted on previous days are actually still being treated in hospitals today. Additionally, with many hospitals having empty beds and needing revenue, it’s possible that less severe Covid-19 cases that were being sent home just a few weeks ago to wait out their illnesses are now being admitted.

Total coronavirus tests: 285,881 by private and state labs, which represents 11,977 (4.3%) more tests than the 273,904 tests in the previous report.

Total positive tests:  35,858 confirmations so far with all testing from both commercial and state labs, a positive confirmation rate of 12.5% of the total tests administered. The positive confirmation rate is closer to 1 out of 8, meaning that 7 out of every 8 tests shows no presence of coronavirus.???

Covid-19 in neighboring counties

Fulton —  3,621, 158 deaths; Clayton — 973 cases, 34 deaths; Henry — 618, 16 deaths; Coweta — 280 cases, 4 deaths; Spalding — 237 cases, 12 deaths;  Fayette — 201 cases, 11 deaths.

Top 5 counties with most deaths: Fulton, 158; Dougherty, 131; Cobb, 128; Gwinnett, 101; DeKalb, 74.


 


Here’s what the raw numbers of new hospital patients across the state of Georgia and the corresponding rates of hospitalization increase day over day look like:

• March 26 — 79 new patients, 20% increase over previous 24-hour period

• March 27 — 93 new patients, 19.9% increase over previous 24-hour period

• March 28 — 51 new patients, 9% increase over previous 24-hour period

• March 29 — 49 new patients, 7.9% increase over previous 24-hour period

• March 30 — 41 new patients, 6.1% increase over previous 24-hour period

• March 31 — 111 new patients, 15.7% increase over previous 24-hour period

• April 1 — 134 new patients, 16.3% increase over previous 24-hour period

• April 2 — 104 new patients, 10.9% increase over previous 24-hour period

• April 3 — 102 new patients, 9.6% increase over previous 24-hour period

• April 4 — 81 new patients, 6.9% increase over previous 24-hour period

• April 5 — 44 new patients, 3.5% increase over previous 24-hour period

• April 6 — 48 new patients, 3.8% increase over previous 24-hour period

• April 7 — 442 new patients, 33.1% increase over previous 24-hour period

• April 8 — 206 new patients, 11.6% increase over previous 24-hour period

• April 9 — 179 new patients, 9% increase over previous 24-hour period

• April 10 — 192 new patients, 8.8% increase over previous 24-hour period

• April 11 — 128 new patients, 5.4% increase over previous 24-hour period

• April 12 — 26 new patients, 1% increase over previous 24-hour period

• April 13 — 81 new patients, 3.29% increase over previous 24-hour period

• April 14 — 183 new patients, 7% increase over previous 24-hour period

• April 15 — 153 new patients, 5.5% increase over previous 24-hour period

• April 16 — 118 new patients, 4% increase over previous day’s report

• April 17 — 284 new patients, 9.3% increase over previous day’s report

• April 18 — 96 new patients, 2.8% increase over previous 24-hour period

• April 19 — 44 new patients, 1.2% increase over previous 24-hour period.

• April 20 — 86 new patients, 2.4% increase over previous 24-hour period.

• April 21 — 229 new patients, 6.4% increase over previous 24-hour period.

• April 22 — 180 new patients, 4.7% increase over previous 24-hour period

• April 23 — 110 new patients, 2.7% increase over previous 24-hour period.

• April 24 — 152 new patients, 3.7% increase over previous 24-hour period.

• April 25 — 105 new patients, 2.4% increase over previous 24-hour period.

• April 26 — 33 new patients, 0.01% (one-tenth of 1 percent) increase over previous 24-hour period.

• April 27 — 74 new patients, 1.6% increase over previous 24-hour period.

• April 28 — 345 new patients, 7.7% increase over previous 24-hour period.

• April 29 — 170 new patients, 3.5% increase over previous 24-hour period.

• April 30 — 162 new patients, 3.2% increase over the previous 24-hour period.

• May 1 — 108 new patients, 2.1% increase over the previous 24-hour period.

• May 2 — 122 new patients, 2.3% increase over the previous 24-hour period.

• May 3 — 53 new patients, 0.9% increase over the previous 24-hour period.

• May 4 —  36 newly hospitalized patients, increase of 0.6% over the previous day.

• May 5 —  145 newly hospitalized patients, increase of 2.6% over the previous day.

• May 6 —  135 newly hospitalized patients, increase of 2.4% over the previous day.

• May 7 —  86 newly hospitalized patients, increase of 1.5% over the previous day.

• May 8 —  91 newly hospitalized patients, increase of 1.5% over the previous day.

• May 9 —  95 newly hospitalized patients, increase of 1.6% over the previous day.

• May 10 —  13 newly hospitalized patients, increase of under 1% over the previous day.

• May 11 —  21 newly hospitalized patients, increase of less than 1% over the previous day.

• May 12 —  115 newly hospitalized patients, increase of 1.9% over the previous day.

• May 13 —  98 newly hospitalized patients, increase of 1.5% over the previous day.

• May 14 — 117 newly hospitalized patients, increase of 1.8% over the previous day.


Below is the daily progression of cumulative reported Covid-19 cases and fatalities in Fayette County:

March 9 — 1 case, no deaths

March 13 — 5 cumulative cases, no deaths

March 17 — 5 cumulative cases, no deaths

March 19 — 9 cumulative cases, no deaths

March 20 — cumulative 9 cases, 1 death (male, 83, other medical conditions)

March 22 — 9 cumulative cases, 1 death

March 23 — 10 cumulative cases, 1 death

March 24 — 12 cumulative cases, 1 death.

March 25 — 12 cumulative cases, 1 death

March 26 — 14 cumulative cases, 2 deaths (no new details provided)

March 27 — 19 cumulative cases, 2 deaths

March 28 — 25 cumulative cases, 2 deaths

March 29 — 26 cumulative cases, 3 deaths (male, 83; male, 79; female, 77; all with underlying medical conditions)

March 30 — 32 cumulative cases, 3 deaths

March 31 — 44 cumulative cases, 4 deaths (female, 51, NO underlying medical condition)

April 1 — 48 cumulative cases, 4 deaths

April 2 — 52 cumulative cases, 4 deaths

April 3 — 58 cumulative cases, 4 deaths

April 4 — 62 cumulative cases, 4 deaths

April 5 — 67 cumulative cases, 4 deaths

April 6 — 74 cumulative cases, 4 deaths

April 7 — 79 cumulative cases, 4 deaths

April 8 — 85 cumulative cases, 4 deaths

April 9 — 89 cumulative cases, 3 deaths (one fewer than reported earlier, no explanation given by DPH, though likely a reclassification of cause of death of one person)

April 10 — 92 cumulative cases, 4 deaths (subtraction yesterday and addition today unexplained by DPH)

April 11 — 94 cumulative cases (#26 in state), 4 deaths

April 12 — 99 cumulative cases (#26 in state), 4 deaths

April 13 —105 cumulative cases (#26 in state), 5 deaths

April 14 — 112 cumulative cases, (#27 in state), 5 deaths

April 15 — 120 cumulative cases (#26 in state), 5 deaths

April 16 — 123 cumulative cases (#26 in state), 5 deaths

April 17 — 133 cumulative cases (#27 in state), 5 deaths

April 18 — 135 cumulative cases (#27 in state) with 5 deaths

April 19 — 139 cumulative cases (#27 in state) with 5 deaths

April 20— 140 cumulative cases (#27 in state) with 5 deaths

April 21 — 144 cumulative cases (#28 in state) with 8 deaths

April 22 — 145 cumulative cases (#28 in state) with 8 deaths

April 23 — 152 cumulative cases (#29 in state) with 8 deaths.

April 24 — 156 cumulative cases (#29 in state) with 8 deaths.

April 25 — 158 cumulative cases (#29 in state) with 8 deaths

April 26 — 161 cumulative cases (#31 in state) with 8 deaths

April 27 — 165 cumulative cases (#30 in state) with 8 deaths.

April 28 — 170 cumulative cases with 9 deaths; 29 hospitalizations.

April 29 — 171 cumulative cases with 9 deaths; 32 hospitalizations.

April 30 — 180 cumulative cases with 10 deaths; 33 hospitalizations.

May 1 — 177 (DPH revised number) cumulative cases with 10 deaths, 33 hospitalizations

May 2 — 180 cumulative cases with 10 deaths, 35 hospitalizations

May 3 — 182 cumulative cases with 10 deaths, 35 hospitalizations

May 4 — 188 cumulative cases with 10 deaths, 35 hospitalizations

May 5 — 185 cumulative cases (unexplained decline) with 10 deaths, 35 hospitalizations

May 6 — 194 cumulative cases with 10 deaths, 36 hospitalizations

May 7 — 188 cumulative cases (unexplained decline) with 11 deaths, 36 hospitalizations.

May 8 — 190 cumulative cases with 12 deaths, 36 hospitalizations.

May 9 — 194 cumulative cases with 12 deaths, 36 hospitalizations.

May 10 — 199 cumulative cases with 12 deaths, 36 hospitalizations.

May 11 — 200 cumulative cases with 12 deaths, 36 hospitalizations.

May 12 — 201 cumulative cases with 12 deaths, 36 hospitalizations.

May 13 — 202 cumulative cases with 12 deaths, 36 hospitalizations.

May 14 — 201 cumulative cases with 11 deaths, 35 hospitalizations (unexplained subtraction of 1 case, 1 death and 1 hospitalization from county totals).

 

2 COMMENTS

  1. Thank you for the thorough report; however, two things.
    1. Depending on the type of test done on the patient whose diagnosis was changed is the question of a false positive or negative test. Just a detail of fact and while seemingly minor, facts must always prevail. As a researcher, that information is an important piece of a novel and changing puzzle.
    2. The total cases in GA yesterday at the approximately 6:49 p.m. was 35,332 with 484 new cases, 11 new deaths, and per capita deaths low, at 142.
    The total cases today in GA at about 2:15 this afternoon have increased to 35,858.
    The total cases increase does not show a decline, though the daily increase is lower than previously reported cases. GA is now 21 days past the business opening date of 4/24, just at 3 weeks. On April 23rd, we were at 21,833 total confirmed cases.
    GA should have followed the original federal guidelines from here: https://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2020/04/16/WHReopeningDoc.pdf
    However, as the current CDC guidelines indicate, we continue to need a better way to protect our Georgians -> https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6889330-Guidance-for-Opening-Up-America-Again-Framework.html?fbclid=IwAR0oeHfxDFFT3V7dmKQePH49XQup30o3CodgMT_03uBXUMoq1kHUMNEk864

    Thanks for reading my comments. I appreciate your reporting and your publication, especially since it is online. Please stay healthy-safe.