ARC predicts population jump for Coweta


New data from the Atlanta Regional Commission (ARC) covering the 20-county metro Atlanta area shows Coweta County in 2040 with a population of nearly 240,000 and a much younger age demographic.

ARC has developed a new series (Series 15) of population and employment forecasts for the 20-county region through the year 2040. These data support the transportation project prioritization and land use planning that is the basis of the Atlanta Region’s Plan, a long-range blueprint for sustainable growth over the next 30 years.

ARC forecasts total population, total households and household population, total jobs, and job change by sector.

In terms of population, Coweta is projected to be home to 239,808 residents by 2040. That represents an increase of more than 100,000 people compared to the 2015 estimated population of 138,427.

Projections in population demographics show Coweta’s white population at 71.79 percent in 2015 and 67.14 percent in 2040. The black population is projected to decrease from 17.41 percent in 2015 to 16.96 percent in 2040.

The Hispanic population is projected to increase from 7.2 percent in 2015 to 11 percent in 2040. Categorized as “other,” that segment of the population was placed at 3.59 percent in 2015 and is expected to increase to 4.9 percent in 2040.

Age demographics by 2040, as with the other metro counties, are projected to make a significant shift.

In 2015, Eisenhowers (people aged 70 and above) make up 8 percent of the county’s population, while Baby Boomers (ages 50-69) constitute 23.77 percent, Generation X (ages 35-49) were 21.64 percent, Millennials (ages 18-34) were at 21.51 percent and Generation Z (ages 0-17) made up 25 percent of the county’s population.

The age demographic will shift dramatically by 2040. Projections show Generation AA (ages 0-24) will account for 29.34 percent of Coweta’s population, Generation Z (then ages 25-42) will be at 23.68 percent, with Millennials (then ages 43-59) at 22.61 percent, Generation X (then ages 60-74) at 14.39 percent, Baby Boomers (then ages 75-94) at 9.66 percent and Eisenhowers (then ages 95 and older) at .32 percent.

In the area of employment, Coweta’s top occupations in 2015 were construction trades workers, food and beverage serving workers, information and record clerks, office and administrative support workers and retail sales staff.

In 2040, the top occupations are projected to remain the same.

ARC’s Series 15 forecasts anticipate, for 2040, just over 8 million persons in the 20-county metro area along with about 4 million jobs. From 2015 to 2040, the 20 county Atlanta Region is forecast to add 2.5 million residents. Average annual growth rate 2015-2040 is a modest 1.5 percent, which while strong (and higher than during the recession) is a departure from more robust historical trends, ARC said.

ARC said the average annual regional population growth rate between the 1950s and the 2000s was 3 percent. Employment for the 20 county Atlanta Region is projected to increase by 1.04 million jobs between 2015 and 2040. The average annual employment growth rate during this period is forecast at 1.2 percent.

Area wide, Gwinnett is projected to have the largest population by 2040 with 1.35 million residents followed by Fulton with 1.26 million, Cobb with 885,062 and DeKalb with 874,424.