All reasonable viewpoints,

but from a shallow perspective, most likely from a lack of experience

in strategic military analysis. I don't know these gentlemen's

military background, aside from Mr. Parker having a DD Form 214, Military

Discharge Certificate.

My credentials: retired Army

officer with 23 years military experience, currently working as a senior

analyst for U.S. Army Central Command.

Allow me to present another

perspective, not mine, but the Ph.D. pundits from the esteemed commercial

publication, Strategic Forecasting, Inc., otherwise known as STRATFOR.

I encourage anyone interested in straight-forward independent strategic

analysis and geopolitics to check out this publication, available at stratfor.com/.

In their 7 Jan. publication

of the STRATFOR WEEKLY, they ran a piece entitled "Bin Laden Tape:

Honesty and Gloom" that I happen to believe is right on the mark.

There isn't room here for the entire article, but I'll attempt

to summarize:

Osama Bin Laden released a

new audio tape during the week of Jan. 5, 2004, remarkable in its shift

of tone and focus from previous tapes. Mood of tape was gloomy, but al

Qaeda has cause to be gloomy: the U.S. is beginning to gain control over

the Iraqi insurrection and the diplomatic situation is beginning to shift

in favor of the U.S. Al Qaeda and Bin Laden know they have a problem and

are desperately searching for a solution.

STRATFOR's analysis is

that the tape represents an honest assessment of the war on terror from

al Qaeda's view, and it reveals the war isn't going well for

them. Among things said by Bin Laden: "The situation is serious and

the misfortune is momentous ... May we examine these pitch-black misfortunes

and how can we find a way out of these adversities and calamities ..."

Essential tone of the entire

tape is that a serious misfortune has befallen the Islamic world. Responsibility

is with Arab leaders and Saudi Arabia in particular. It is far from a

statement of surrender but also far from the defiant triumphalism of earlier

statements.

To understand Bin Laden's

mood, one must look at the war from a strategic standpoint. The U.S. mounted

an effective invasion of Iraq. While the U.S. initially underestimated

the strength of the guerrillas, the insurrection never spread past the

Sunni triangle, a relatively small piece of Iraq.

Iraqi politics are also shifting

in favor of the U.S. The majority Shia are less opposed to the U.S. then

the Sunnis, and have no use for the foreign jihadists. They are cooperating

with the U.S., in part for control in the government later.

The Sunni sheiks, observing

the decline of the guerrilla movement, are repositioning themselves, making

deals with the Americans. Therefore, al Qaeda's hope of bogging down

the U.S. in Iraq as they did the Soviets in Afghanistan is disappearing.

On a broader front, the situation

is even more unsatisfactory. Al Qaeda hoped that 9/11 would trigger a

massive rising among the Islamic masses, toppling regimes collaborating

with the U.S. and forcing others to change their policies. That simply

hasn't happened. Invasion of Iraq didn't cause it to happen

either.

To the contrary, the trend

in the Islamic world is toward collaboration with the U.S. Most important

case is Iran (a Shiite government), whose interests are geopolitical;

a Shiite-dominated government in Iraq would certainly be a buffer to Iran's

western flank.

The thought that Iran could

be a leading regional power made Saudi Arabia (a Sunni government) take

notice and start cleaning house of al Qaeda in the kingdom.

This was a fundamental U.S.

goal in the invasion of Iraq. It didn't happen exactly as planned,

but it happened nevertheless. The Saudis, as well as other Gulf states

are aggressively accommodating U.S. interests, including attacking al

Qaeda throughout the region.

Libya also decided it was a

good time to cozy up to the U.S. In the Arab world, only Syria remained

outside the process, betting the U.S. would get bogged down. Around the

end of December, they realized they had not only bet wrong, but had become

completely isolated in the Arab world and surrounded by enemies on all

sides. Syria then began to make amends through political diplomacy.

Al Qaeda knows the culminating

battle of the war will be waged in northwestern Pakistan when U.S. forces

go after Osama and his command cells. They must bring down Pakistan's

leader, President Gen. Musharraf, in order to thwart the U.S. objectives.

They have tried, twice, and have failed.

At the moment, not much is

going al Qaeda's way, but they are not yet defeated. Reversals in

war are common; the measure of victory is how quickly and effectively

one adjusts to the reality and creates a new strategy.

Time is not on al Qaeda's

side; they must do something and do it quickly or continue to lose credibility.

Bin Laden is going to have to come up with a good Plan B. The war is not

over, but if al Qaeda cannot solve its strategic problem soon, then it

could be, at least for this generation.

So it seems the Bush Administration

and the Pentagon may know what they are doing after all, and their strategy

on the war on terrorism is having an effect on al Qaeda. Let's pray

STRATFOR is correct and al Qaeda becomes paralyzed.

Martin Poffenberger

Peachtree City, Ga.