The perils of before-the-fact predictions

Opinion
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The perils of before-the-fact predictions

Opinion
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I don't know how last night's

election results turned out.

You can say that in the newspaper

business without necessarily being stupid. I'm writing this on Monday,

but you are reading it on Wednesday, and oh the perspective advantage

you have on me.

So this is prediction meant

to be read after the fact.

What happened? Here's what

I'm guessing.

The wheelchair was too much

to overcome in the U.S. Senate race. Chambliss never seemed to zero in

on Max's most vulnerable area his votes that tracked Ted Kennedy's and

Hillary Clinton's positions more often than they tracked our man Zell's.

Max got less liberal the closer

election day got, but look for that to change dramatically after today.

Max will continue to vote outside the path of mainstream Georgia voters

and to track more closely the ultra-liberal leftists ruling the Atlanta

Constitution editorial board.

But he's fooled a lot of people

for a long time, using that wheelchair as his shield.

If I'm wrong, and Saxby got

lucky, then I'll celebrate with a main dish of crow flambeau.

King Roy's rule continues,

with the added bonus of not catching so much flak from the state school

superintendent's office. With Fayette's Kathy Cox winning her race, "cooperation"

(or more accurately, "compliance") with Roi Roy will be the

theme for the next four years.

Speaking of crow, I predicted

within the past year that Cox's statewide race was "quixotic."

Turns out her trusty steed was not named "Rocinante," but "Republican,"

and that was sufficient.

It's instructive that she,

a Republican, received the endorsement of the normally Democrat-loving

Georgia Education Association, a group allied with the teachers-union-promoting

NEA. It's that cold day arrived when the GAE embraces a Republican.

And how about the blitz of

political ads on TV? They got to be unwatchable. So distorted, on both

sides. If you base your vote on TV ads, you are a liability to democracy.

My late colleague Dave Hamrick

once brought me up short when I suggested how terrible it was that the

voter turnout was so low.

"There are people so dumb,

so uninformed, that they should not vote," Dave said. "Our country

is better off if they never vote again."

That seemed heretical to me

at the time, but I've found myself edging closer to that opinion myself.

If you don't know what's going on, if you don't know one senatorial candidate

from another stay home; don't vote.

Thomas Jefferson's implicit

argument he famously counseled that people must educate themselves about

their freedoms is that voter stupidity can kill a democratic republic.

If you think that a lot of

folks are not stupid, just look at how much milage the Democrats get out

of the old "tax cuts for the rich" theme. For some reason, many

people urged on by Democrats believe that it's unfair to let hard-working

people keep more of the money they worked hard to earn. These unfortunates

believe that it's "unfair" that people who paid little or no

taxes should receive little or no tax relief.

Here's a hot flash: Tax relief

is for people who pay taxes. People who did not pay taxes have no right

to expect that they should get back money they never paid in the first

place.

How that simple point gets

lost in all the tax-cut rhetoric continues to baffle me. At some point,

you just have to come to the conclusion that a lot of people are just

stupid, and that Democrats take cynical advantage of that unfortunate

fact with their stick-it-to-the-rich attacks.

Here's another hot flash: To

Democrats, anybody with a household income of over $50,000 is "rich."

Why? Because it's that group that pays most of the personal income taxes

collected in this country. And it's that group that gets relief in a Republican

tax plan.

Here's another hot flash: If

you earn more money and pay more taxes, you get more dollars back in a

tax relief plan than if you earn fewer dollars and pay fewer dollars in

taxes.

Is that such a hard concept

to understand? And where is the "unfairness" in that?

Democrats never explain WHY

something is unfair. All they have to do for the non-taxpaying masses

is holler "Unfair!" and the GOP runs for cover.

There are a few political certainties

these days: Democrats will continue to bleat about unfairness, and Republican

"leaders" will continue their persistent penchant to quit the

battlefield, standing for little and falling for most everything.

No crystal ball is needed for

that prediction.

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