"Jump the shark,"

a recently popularized term of art forecasting the failure of everything

from sitcoms to politicians, has roots dating back believe it or not to

an episode of the 70's megahit, "Happy Days." It seems the Fonz

vaulted one such predaceous fish while water-skiing, thus beginning an

irreversible slide into syndication, at least according to jumptheshark.com

pioneer and "When Good Things Go Bad" author Jon Hein.

Inextricably linked to a moment

in time when a bad decision tests the limits of good, the same catchy

concept might very well predict if not preempt destructive behavior by

young people.

New research from SADD and

Liberty Mutual Group reveals similar decision points for limit-testing

teens. Taking us on an inside-the-head tour of adolescent thinking, the

Teens Today 2002 report serves up a rare glimpse of the "whys"

and "why nots" of drinking, drug use and sex. Just as important,

it maps a developmental time line that reveals significant spikes in destructive,

or potentially destructive, behaviors of sixthtwelfth graders.

While, not surprisingly, teens

report upward trends in certain behaviors throughout middle and high school,

many decisions seem to be made at key intersections along the way. In

an instant, an otherwise systematic route to healthy adulthood can take

a turn for the worse. The study found that:

Drinking increases significantly

between sixth and seventh grade.

Drug use increases significantly

between eighth and ninth grade.

Sexual activity increases

significantly between tenth and eleventh grade.

There are other important findings

as well. A second spike in drinking takes place between eighth and ninth

grade. Younger teens are more likely to be influenced to use drugs by

"external" goals (e.g., to fit in) than are older teens, who

are more likely to cite "internal" factors (e.g., to relieve

stress). Almost one in four sixth graders is engaged in sexual activity;

and by twelfth grade, more than three in four teens are drinking and engaged

in sexual activity (and almost half report using drugs).

In some ways, the data confirms

what many parents fear: young people have easy access to alcohol, drugs

and sex. Good decision-making then becomes their last, best line of defense.

Like adults, teens juggle many

variables when making decisions about personal behavior. Unlike adults,

teens' "consideration set" is remarkably malleable and their

thought process fast and fluid. The factors they weigh change in number

and proportion depending on their age and the decision they're making.

Identifying those factors can help parents help teens plan detours around

trouble.

Decision factors regularly

mentioned by young people include:

Mental states (e.g., depression,

anxiety, stress, boredom, curiosity).

Personal goals (e.g., to feel

grown up, to fit it, to take risks).

Potential outcomes (e.g.,

Are others doing it? What are the consequences?).

Significant people (e.g.,

parents, friends, siblings, clergy).

These, and other factors, feed

into an elaborate "cost-benefit analysis," often performed with

lightning speed. With deliberate, before-the-fact intervention, parents

can slow down the decision-making process and equip their children with

the information and support they need to make healthy choices.

The data points out that parents

are teens' number one influence to not make destructive decisions. No

news there.

Teens Today research has consistently

revealed meaningful correlations between parental involvement and teen

decision-making.

For example, teens who report

regular, open communication with their parents about important issues

say they are more likely to try to live up to their parents' expectations

and less likely to drink, use drugs or engage in early sexual behavior.

Now parents can deploy time-targeted strategies calibrated for maximum

impact at specified steps of development. Here are just a few.

Sixth Grade: Demystify

alcohol through conversations about its use in society.

Plan events or activities that

highlight increasing maturity of early teens.

Reinforce trust as a critical

element in parent-child relationships.

Eight Grade: Monitor

stressors associated with pending school/grade change.

Promote positive risk-taking

activities.

Engage in dialogue about the

effects of drugs on personal goals.

Tenth Grade: Educate

teens about physical and emotional risks of sexual behavior.

Draw attention to inaccurate

"social norms" portrayed through the media.

Encourage open discussion about

mutually respectful relationships.

Close behind parents in terms

of influence are friends. No surprise there, either. Young people can,

and should, play a major role in encouraging classmates to make good decisions.

In fact, positive peer influence was the genesis of SADD and remains the

cornerstone of remarkably effective education and prevention efforts nationwide.

Understanding the complex world

of teen decision-making, including the influence of peers, is a daunting

yet important predicate to successful parenting. Young people, now more

than ever, need help to safely navigate the shark-infested waters that

lie between childhood and adulthood.

[Stephen Wallace is a psychologist

and the national chairman and chief executive officer of SADD, Inc. SADD

sponsors school-based education and prevention programs nationwide and

makes available at no charge the SADD Contract for Life and the Opening

Lifesaving Lines brochure, both designed to facilitate effective parent-child

communication. Toll-free: 877-SADD-INC. For more information on the SADD/Liberty

Mutual Teens Today research, visit www.saddonline.com or www.libertymutualinsurance.com.]