Noting

that the Federal Reserve System has been trying

to slow things down to keep the nation's economy

at a sustainable level, Smith pointed out that

the expansion in the U. S. economy is now nine

years old, the longest on record. Listing factors

that contributed to this, he said, "GNP

growth exceeded 4 percent in 1999 for the third

year in a row. There's record low unemployment.

The housing and construction industry had its

best year in 1999.

"We

haven't had inflation, federal and state

governments have had budget surpluses, the stock

market has had increases of over 20 percent for

five years in a row, and consumer confidence is

at an all time high," he added.

Turning

to warning signs, he noted that inflation could

be starting to build, and there are labor

shortages, and oil and gas prices are rising. In

addition, the global economy is stronger, which

means higher commodity prices here.

"The

Federal Reserve is turning aggressive in 2000 in

raising rates," said Smith. "Their goal

is to provide a `soft landing' so expansion will

continue. Actually, long term rates have

increased very little, and over the long haul, I

don't think it will get out of hand."

Smith

said the Atlanta economy is even healthier than

the nation's.

"We

have a diverse economy with a growth rate well

above that of the nation. Our per capita income

average is increasing, we have strong

in-migration, housing is affordable, and Atlanta

is a transportation, distribution and cultural

center. Also, the technology sector and durable

goods are increasing."

Atlanta's

weaknesses were listed as a growth rate that's

putting strain on infrastructure, an educational

system that needs improvement, suburban sprawl

problems, and anti-growth measures that could

stifle growth and raise costs.

Smith

told the group that Atlanta led the list of top

10 cities in housing permits in 1999 with 47,599.

He

said that in the Southern Crescent area, Coweta,

Fayette and Henry counties had slight decreases

in permits, comparing 1999 to the previous year,

but these counties' figures "were still

healthy."

He

said that this year, the building business will

be good but will be down slightly in the metro

Atlanta area.

Speaking

specifically of the Southern Crescent, Smith said

that new home inventory is in "great

shape," but there is a shortage in lot

supply in some areas.

"Fayette

County isn't experiencing the lot supply shortage

as much as other counties," he said.

Smith

ended his talk by declaring that even if things

tighten down, "I would rather be in Atlanta

than anywhere else."

The

association's February meeting was at WhiteWater

Country Club. Corporate sponsor for the meeting

was SunTrust Bank Atlanta.

The

Home Builders Association of Midwest Georgia,

which serves builders in Fayette, Coweta,

Spalding, Heard and Meriwether Counties,

currently has around 410 members. For information

about the association phone 770-716-7109.