Traditionally, the ending

of one year and the beginning of another is often

considered a good time to make resolutions about how to

change one's life.

And, at least one

Republican presidential contender, Texas Gov. George W.

Bush, appears to be taking this tradition to heart, at

least according to recent headlines.

Bush is the national

"frontrunner" - at least in terms of money

raised and endorsements collected - but he is about

to change his strategy in New Hampshire. For, he has

learned that voters there are not impressed by

"frontrunners." Indeed, they often seem to chew

them up and spit them out for the fun of it.

And, the latest polls of

the electorate in this "first in the nation"

primary state show that Bush may be the leader everywhere

else, but in New Hampshire he is nine points behind

Arizona Sen. John McCain.

So, Bush is shifting gears

and making a resolution to spend at least 15 days

campaigning in New Hampshire before the Feb. 1 Republican

Primary.

In fact, joked a Bush

campaign spokesperson, he is going to spend so much time

in New Hampshire that folks "will think he is the

governor there."

The reason is simple:

McCain has been campaigning vigorously in New Hampshire

and his strategy of town hall meetings where he talks to

voters, answering their questions and interacting with

them face-to-face - rather than depending upon

television commercials to convey his message - seems

to have paid off, at least according to the polls.

Now, McCain does not have

the warchest necessary to support a massive media

campaign. So, he has had no choice but to conduct a

one-on-one effort. But, this is the kind of campaign New

Hampshire voters prefer and the type they expect.

Obviously, if you don't

come and ask for their votes, you are probably not going

to get them. So, Bush is shifting his strategy and going

to compete with McCain on the ground, rather than over

the airwaves.

Now, based on the

historical record, winning the New Hampshire primary is

probably not going to matter much . This may come as a

shock to many casual observers of politics, for they tend

to believe that winning New Hampshire is a necessity for

winning the White House. But, the reality is that in

years gone by, the winner of the New Hampshire Primary

has not won the presidency.

Consider some of the

"also rans" who won the New Hampshire Primary:

Henry Cabot Lodge, Edmund Muskie, Gary Hart, Paul

Tsongas, Pat Buchanan, and Estes Kefauver (twice).

They were good candidates

who ran good campaigns and appealed to the voters there;

but, for a variety of reasons, they fell by the wayside

before the conventions.

So, if the eventual nominee

is so little influenced by the New Hampshire Primary, why

is so much time and effort put into the campaigns there?

Well, for starters, New

Hampshire is the Grim Reaper of the road to the

Convention - a place where the field of candidates

is reduced (sometimes dramatically). And, second, the

winner in New Hampshire sometimes gets a bounce which

propels them further along.

Bush - who is the

first contender since John Connally, another former Texas

governor, to have so much money in the bank he could

reject federal funds (and the concurrent spending limits)

- wants to make sure that he does not lose whatever

momentum is available to the frontrunner by losing the

first primary.

And, secondarily, he wants

to insure that McCain does not become a giant-killer in

New Hampshire and use that "bounce" to propel

him to victory elsewhere.

So, for these two obvious

reasons (if for no other), Bush has resolved to change

his strategy and run a face-to-face campaign on the

ground in New Hampshire.

Many people who want to

support him there are probably saying: "It's about

time."

[Lee N. Howell is an

award-winning writer who has been observing and

commenting upon politics and society in the Southern

Crescent, the state, and nation for more than a quarter

of a century.]