If

Fayette County enacts a special sales tax to pay

for a new jail and judicial complex, the average

three-person household will pay about $1,500 over

the five-year life of the tax.

Maybe.

The

figure is based on some economic assumptions that

may or may not prove accurate, says county

finance director Emory McHugh.

McHugh

put together a complex table of predictions based

on a variety of different scenarios that the

County Commission will refer to as it discusses

financing options for the complex today in its

monthly work session.

The

$1,500 figure is based on an econometric model

that assumes local residents will pay about 70

percent of the sales taxes, while nonresidents

shopping here will pay about 30 percent. Among

other assumptions in the model are a 3 percent

inflation rate, a growth rate of 3,500 new

residents per year, a 5 percent growth in the tax

digest and a cost of $70 million for the

construction projects, all of which may or may

not be accurate, said McHugh.

"That's

why I gave them a range rather than a single

assumption," he said. "There's no way

to be sure of anything."

McHugh

provided predictions of cost per family based on

a range of local contributions running from 65

percent to 90 percent, and came up with a total

cost to the average family that ranges from

$1,392.87 to $1,928.61 for a special sales tax.

By

comparison, a general obligation bond would cost

about $1,750.59 per three-person household,

spread over 30 years. Bonds issued by a special

public facilities authority would cost $1,296.04

and if the county obtains funding under a

Certificates of Participation program, the cost

would be $1,315.46.

Those

figures also are based on current interest rates

for the various types of bonds, and McHugh was

careful to point out that those rates fluctuate

daily.

If

county property taxes are increased to pay for

any of the bond options, residents can deduct

those taxes from their state and federal income

taxes, reducing those costs further. Reduced by

an average income tax deduction, residents would

pay about $1,155.39 for general obligation bonds,

$855.39 under an authority, and $868.21 using

COPS.

The

numbers would vary widely, depending on such

factors as the value of a family's home, and how

much retail sales the county will experience in a

given year.

"I

just did my best to give them a variety of

answers based on a variety of different

assumptions," said McHugh.

Commissioners

will study all of those estimates and the

assumptions that go along with them, contained in

a 25-page report, as they continue to ponder the

issue of how to pay for the project. They meet

today at 3:30 p.m. at the County Administrative

Complex, 140 Stonewall Ave., Fayetteville.

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