The

off-year elections are now history and the 2000 political

season has begun. Of course, politics will not really

heat up until next summer, but - as we all know

- campaigning for the major offices up for grabs

then has already begun.

One of the most interesting

races - certainly one that will be watched most

closely by everyone to see if there are any trends

developing there which might affect the rest of the

country - will be the battle in New York between, we

all currently presume, New York City Mayor Rudolph

Giuliani and First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Voters in the Empire State

can look forward to a long, hot summer of screeching from

Giuliani about that "carpetbagger" Clinton. If,

- with good name recognition and the ability to

build a strong organization greased with lots of campaign

funds wherever they decide to run - has looked

around and decided that New York will make a logical and

agreeable base for their future political endeavors, then

he may have pegged his opponent correctly.

For, New York is rightly

seen as a moderate-to-liberal state which leans

Democratic and is not averse to electing national

political figures (or those who hope to become such) as

their top officials.

Indeed, of the last four

persons to hold the seat over which Giuliani and Clinton

are expected to fight, two had not been previously

identified with the state politically and one (the

incumbent) had long lived outside its borders moving back

only because of the job he took.

Retiring Sen. Daniel

Patrick Moynihan was born and raised in Oklahoma, only

coming to New York as a college student, but he did first

get into politics there as an aide to former New York

Governor Averell Harriman and his last government job

before running for office was as ambassador to the United

Nations - which required him to live in New York

City. But, in between, he taught in Massachusetts, worked

in Washington and served as U. S. ambassador to India.

The man that Moynihan beat

was really a carpetbagger - though he came from just

across the border in Connecticut - James Buckley.

However, the most famous

carpetbagger in New York politics of all times was former

U. S. Sen. Robert F. Kennedy, who ran for the Senate

there in 1964.

Admittedly, Kennedy had

been raised in New York - and he had lived there as

long as he had in Hyannisport, Cambridge, on various New

England prep school campuses, the Virginia suburbs, the

Court of St. James, or any of his other homes in his

somewhat nomadic existence. But, he only established his

residence (in a hotel - like President George Bush,

whose official Texas voting residence was a luxury suite

at a downtown Houston hotel) the day before he announced

his candidacy.

And, the frenetic,

shaggy-haired campaigner ran against a dignified, liberal

Republican (there used to be a few of them around!) who

was actually endorsed by a host of prominent liberal

Democrats like writer Gore Vidal, actor Paul Newman, and

historian Barbara Tuchman.

Still, Kennedy was the heir

of the Kennedy legacy, and, if you have forgotten or are

too young to remember, consider the outpouring of

emotions when John F. Kennedy Jr. died recently and you

get some small idea of the feelings that Kennedy evoked.

Of course, even Kennedy

needed the boost the ticket got that year from his old

nemesis, Lyndon Baines Johnson, to win, for LBJ carried

New York by two million votes and Kennedy only won by

703,000!

Now, Clinton is arguably as

well-known as her famous predecessor and will likely be

able to out-spend and out-glamourize her Republican

opponent. But, she had better quickly begin campaigning

pretty ferociously because - while the Democrats may

win the White House again (and very likely will carry New

York even if they do not) - a 1964-style landslide

just doesn't seem likely at all.

[Lee N. Howell is an

award-winning writer who has been observing politics and

society in the Southern Crescent, the state, and nation

for more than a quarter of a century.]

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