Over a year

ago, I predicted a Bush/Dole GOP presidential ticket for

2000, and in the early going it looks like it's a

definite possibility.

Texas Gov.

George W. Bush took first place in the Iowa straw poll

this past weekend, rich guy Steve Forbes came in second

and Elizabeth Dole, queen of the Red Cross, took third.

It's only

the beginning, of course, but doing well in the Iowa

beauty contest is considered a must if a presidential

candidate wants to go on from there.

I don't see

much competition for Junior out there, frankly. I think

he'll win the nomination, and the presidency too unless

he gets sloppy somewhere along the way.

Forbes may

end up in second or third place, but the perception is

that he's trying to buy his way to the White House, and

right or wrong, it's not a picture that Republicans want

Democrats to be able to paint for their nominee.

Personally

I like Forbes for his sales tax idea, but he needs to

flesh out his platform a little more than that. And I'm

still not sure if I like the sales tax better than the

flat tax. I really would prefer a candidate who will

promise to get rid of the present system, but first to

conduct an intense national discussion of where to go

from there.

Is that

what George W. will do?

Uh... er...

Well, I really don't have a clue. I wrote about the

possibility of a Bush/Dole ticket with a certain relish

last year because I see it as a popular ticket that will

have a good chance of winning.

But now,

faced with the reality that my prediction will come true,

I'm not sure exactly what we might be getting. You can be

sure I'll find out more as time goes on.

It's the

process, of course. Bush has learned from Bill Clinton

and others before him that the way to win is to look

good, to offer a positive-sounding, warm fuzzy platform

that's not too specific, and pick a running mate who can

bring in some votes you wouldn't get otherwise.

Oh, and

look like a winner. That's why Iowa is so important.

Just from

the news coverage, I'm not getting much of an idea of

where Junior stands on the issues I think are most

important: a balanced budget amendment; term limits;

complete annihilation for all time of the IRS; ditto for

Social Security; long-term tax reductions that don't get

taken back the next year; rebuilding the military; a

consistent, moral and practical foreign policy. Things

like that.

So I'm not

yet jumping for joy at the prospect of another Bush in

the White House. I'll try to find out as much as I can

and get back to you on that.

Meanwhile,

is Dole still the most likely choice for the number two

spot?

She's no

fool. Her campaign has been just as general as Bush's, so

I'm not ready to endorse her yet. And whoever wins the

nomination will have a lot to weigh before picking a

running mate.

But even if

I'm wrong about Bush taking the top spot and Forbes or

someone else wins out, Dole has at least a 50-50 chance

(better than anyone else by far) of being offered the

vice president's spot on the ticket.

She has one

thing no other candidate can bring to the table... her

gender. She is popular among progressive women, something

the GOP ticket desperately needs.

But I

haven't done the math as far as regional preferences. If

Dole can attract 10 percent more female votes but can't

deliver certain key states, she might not make the cut.

At any

rate, it looks like the Republican Primary race is gong

to be a lot more interesting than the other one, and the

publicity that will come from that will help the GOP in

the big game come November 2000.

It should

be fun.

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