New tornado forecasting

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New tornado forecasting

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Researchers at the Georgia

Tech Research Institute are testing and optimizing the

Severe Storms Laboratory's Next Generation Warning

Decision Support System during the 1999 and 2000 tornado

seasons. Though the test area is north Georgia, the study

results will be applicable throughout the state.

The NG-WDSS was installed

at the Weather Service's Peachtree City office earlier

this month, and two more systems will be deployed in GTRI

laboratories by the end of June.

"We will be optimizing

the system to reflect Georgia's environment," said

Gene Greneker, a research scientist who is heading GTRI's

recently established Severe Storms Research Center.

"Tornadoes in Georgia and elsewhere in the Southeast

are often short-lived events. They can come and go in 10

minutes, as opposed to an hour in Kansas. As a result,

the radar signal processing may need to be set slightly

different from those that were developed for the Great

Plains states where the NG-WDSS was first developed and

tested."

Optimizing the system will

involve researchers in collecting storm data and

determining if changing parameters in the NG-WDSS

algorithms will make it work better in Georgia.

NG-WDSS provides a set of

tools that help forecasters make more efficient,

effective and timely decisions on warning the public of

tornadoes, severe thunderstorms and flash floods. The

system includes advanced image processing, artificial

intelligence, neural network and other algorithms that

use Doppler radar data. The data are integrated with

other weather sensor data to guide forecasters.

Another important part of

the system is how it displays and presents information to

forecasters.

The NSSL, a part of the

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, has

successfully tested NG-WDSS in various parts of the

country since 1996, when it operated as an advanced

system at Peachtree City during the Olympics. Because of

the expense of deploying the warning system, it will not

be fully implemented across the country for another five

to seven years, Greneker said.

But in Georgia, funding

from the Georgia Emergency Management Agency, the Federal

Emergency Management Agency and the Georgia General

Assembly allowed the Severe Storms Research Center to

contract with NSSL to deploy the warning systems

installed in Peachtree City and at Georgia Tech. Bell

South Business Systems also is providing funds, which

will pay for high speed data transmission lines.

An initial one year of

funding for Tech's research center, a three-year project,

followed recommendations made last year by former Gov.

Zell Miller's Task Force on Warning and Communication.

Miller formed the task force after severe storms claimed

23 lives in Georgia in 1998.

Gov. Roy Barnes has pledged

continued support for the project.

Forecasters and emergency

management officials believe that better warning systems,

such as the NG-WDSS, could lower those death tolls. In

addition to improving warning time, the system should

result in fewer false alarms.

"False alarms

desensitize the public to valid warnings," Greneker

said. "While the NG-WDSS will not totally eliminate

the false alarm problem, test data show that it can help

the problem."

When the NG-WDSS is

installed in GTRI's laboratories, researchers will begin

to test the system, Greneker said. Part of that effort

will include collecting data in the aftermath of

tornadoes. "This information will help us determine

how much warning the NG-WDSS provided before the tornado

touched down," Greneker explained.

So far this tornado season,

researchers have not been able to conduct many tests

because of the few number of severe storms.

"Other than the

tornadoes in Vienna and Metter, it's been a very quiet

tornado season (usually January to May) this year,"

Greneker said. "So it's given us a breather to get

the equipment installed. By next spring, we will be ready

to really test the system."

Meanwhile, the research

center is proceeding with other projects to improve

severe weather forecasting in Georgia. One study will

measure electrical discharge from cloud-to-cloud

lightning strikes. Researchers believe that increasing

amounts of electrical discharge indicate that a tornado

could be forming, Greneker explained.

When GEMA chose the Tech

research institute as the site for the Severe Storm

Research Center, it outlined its mission for the center.

That mission is to:

� Serve as a

quick-response information resource for weather and

emergency management agencies.

� Become an advanced

prototype facility.

� Develop and maintain a

database of severe storms dynamics.

� Develop a plan for

expanding Georgia's severe storm spotter network with

help from two-way radio-equipped public safety personnel.

� Provide real-time

information regarding tornado development or ground track

coordinates to the National Weather Service.

� Determine whether

tornadoes occur in certain areas of the state more often

than others. If so, forecasting resource improvements

would concentrate on these "tornado alleys."

� Work with agencies to

educate Georgians about floods and hurricanes; and

develop methods to quickly transmit flood and hurricane

effects data to county-level emergency managers.

� Provide information on

and evaluate advanced communications techniques for GEMA.

These efforts would improve the response and transmission

times for sending warning data to emergency managers.

� Develop a library of the

latest knowledge on severe storms, including theories on

their formation and trends in storm occurrence.

Availability of funding for

2000 and 2001 will determine whether the SSRC can fully

meet these goals, Greneker added.

The National Oceanic and

Atmospheric Administration also has posted a news release

related to the NG-WDSS project in Georgia. See it at

https://www.publicaffairs.

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