At the recent Coweta County School Board (CCSS) meeting, Mr. James Wilson Founder and CEO of EdPlanners presented an analysis of expected future growth in Coweta County. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmmJbh1_4rY 

Mr., Wilson who was formerly a superintendent of both Cobb County and Fulton County Schools, has presented before the CCSS board as recently as 2023. In his analysis, Mr. Wilson highlighted new growth in the county due to new subdivisions and apartments. On page 18 of his presentation, he showed CCSS student population of the past ten years (below). 

While the chart seems to indicate significant growth, however, the scaling n the chart is misleading. Over the ten-year period (2015-2024), the system grew 639 students or 2.8%. In fact, since 2008, CCSS has grown 6.1% based on state reports. 

It’s important to remember that the school board does not drive growth but rather is tasked with reacting to growth driven by the decisions of our county leaders. Therefore, the must react to the decisions of others.

 However, its interesting to consider Mr. Wilson’s perspective. He was Superintendent of Cobb County Schools. Cobb County is 77% the size of Coweta in land mass (345 sq mi v 446) but Cobb has more than five times the population of Coweta. Do we want to follow or avoid that example? But remembering that starts with land use, not schools.

Next the below chart was presented based on CCSS data. It shows that the system is 90% of capacity with 2,656 “seats” over 12 grades. Given that the system has grown 639 students over the past ten years, it looks like growth is not a current threat.

Thankfully, in his summary, Superintendent Horton found the same conclusion. HE stated that the systems have options such as redistricting to react to short term growth.

However, Mr. Wilson also informs us that Atlanta’s growth has reached a second stage which moves from the core inner counties of Cobb, Fulton, Gwinnett and Dekalb, out toward counties such as Coweta. The Atlanta regional commission (ARC) has told him so. In fact, their projections show that Coweta is projected to grow sixth as a percentage of current population at 51%. (Below)

When I first got involved with first Fayette County ESPLOST, the Fayette County Board of Education (FCBOE) had just decided to build Rivers Elementary School in reaction to ARC projections and trends at the time. 

However, this would be a building funded by educational bonds but never would be a school. In fact, Rivers Elementary never opened and was later sold for pennies on the dollar to be part of the Pinewood (later Trillith) campus. Nearby land which was designated for the “sixth high school” is now under development as a new data center.

At the time, I argued that the school board made the best decision they could based on available “trends and indicators”. The surge created by growth in the Redwine area and Planterra, with Centennial just coming out the ground.  However, the surge was not sustained.

In fact, Fayette’s schools have almost 10% less students than in 2008. Four schools have closed. FCBOE now uses a strategy to add on to existing building to deal with growth.

When I saw Mr. Wilson’s presentation, my memories of Rivers came rushing back. Fortunately, it seems that Superintendent Horton and our Coweta County Board are taking a conservative approach, however, we must let our county commissioners know what we believe future growth should be.