Recently, I was discussing marketing campaign results with my team at work. We were trying to determine exactly what contributed to the success of a specific marketing campaign we ran over the summer. Was it the timing, the messaging, or perhaps external factors we hadn’t considered? This conversation got me thinking about attribution—the process of determining who or what is responsible for an outcome—and how we apply this in our daily lives. Before going back to social media and resharing political memes about inflation and the eating habits of refugees, take a moment to read this article.
Attribution sounds like a fancy word, but it’s not. In everyday living, it’s often what we do in order to associate credit or blame to something. It’s an activity we do almost instinctively, whether we’re reflecting on personal achievements, evaluating a project at work, or trying to make sense of complex world events. Attribution plays a critical role in shaping how we understand the world and the decisions we make based on that understanding. For example, if a business does well, we might attribute that success to good leadership, effective marketing, or even external factors like market conditions. The same logic applies in our personal lives, where we assign credit or blame based on the factors we believe led to certain outcomes.
But attribution doesn’t exist in isolation. It often intersects with two other important concepts—causation and correlation. Causation occurs when one event directly leads to another. For example, if you water your plants and they grow, watering is the direct cause of their growth. Correlation, on the other hand, happens when two things occur together, but one doesn’t necessarily cause the other. For instance, you might notice that as more people carry umbrellas, more car accidents occur. While these two events are linked (correlated), carrying umbrellas doesn’t cause car accidents. In reality, both are likely influenced by a third factor—bad weather. Understanding the difference between causation and correlation is important. People often jump to conclusions when two things happen around the same time, mistakenly assuming one must have caused the other, when they could be entirely unrelated.
As I mentioned in my article Applying Data Science to Analyze Our Relationships with Other People, we often make the mistake of seeing patterns where they don’t exist. Just because two things occur together doesn’t mean one caused the other. This is a common pitfall in life and business—mistaking correlation for causation. The term for mistaking correlation for causation is called a causal fallacy.
These concepts—attribution, causation, and correlation—are important to how we understand the world, especially during high-stakes times like a presidential campaign. Many people tend to hold firm views and search for examples that confirm their beliefs, without digging deeper into the facts. This is known as confirmation bias—the tendency to seek out information that supports one’s existing views while disregarding contradictory evidence. Many of the opinions expressed on social media and even on this newspaper’s website are just that—opinions that aren’t necessarily grounded in any type of rigorous analysis or review of the facts.
Real-World Examples of Attribution, Causation, and Correlation
Let’s look at how these concepts apply in both tangible and intangible ways. Tangible examples are those that can be measured or quantified, making it easier to track their direct impact. Intangible examples, on the other hand, are harder to measure because they involve factors like emotions, leadership, or mindset, which don’t have clear numerical indicators but still play a crucial role.
- Attribution (Tangible): Imagine a restaurant owner sees an uptick in customers after starting a new social media campaign. In this case, the marketing efforts could be directly responsible for the increase in foot traffic. By tracking the timing of the campaign and customer engagement, the owner can definitively attribute the success to the marketing strategy, as there were no other notable factors influencing the results.
- Attribution (Intangible): In a workplace setting, a manager might attribute a team’s success to one person’s leadership. However, leadership is intangible because it’s hard to measure directly. While the leader may have influenced the outcome, the success could also be due to factors like team collaboration and external support, which are less visible but still play an important role.
- Causation (Tangible): A student improves their grades after receiving tutoring. This is a tangible example of causation because the impact of tutoring can be easily measured through the student’s test scores, which show a direct improvement as a result of the extra academic support.
- Causation (Intangible): A person’s mood improves after practicing daily meditation. While the cause—meditation—might not be as easy to quantify as something physical, it still directly impacts mental well-being. This is an intangible example because emotional and psychological changes are harder to measure, but the positive effect is clear.
- Correlation (Tangible): You might notice that as gym memberships increase in January, sales of workout gear also rise. While these two events are correlated, signing up for a gym doesn’t directly cause more people to buy workout gear. Instead, both are likely driven by New Year’s resolutions and a focus on fitness, which prompts both activities.
- Correlation (Intangible): An individual might notice that their productivity increases on days when they listen to music. While there is a correlation between the two, listening to music may not be the direct cause of their increased productivity. Other factors, such as a well-rested mind or a good mood, may be at play.
The Role of Synergy in Everyday Living
Synergy occurs when the combined effect of several efforts is greater than the sum of their individual impacts. In both life and business, success often comes from multiple actions working together in harmony rather than from any single effort. Understanding synergy helps us better attribute credit where it’s due and recognize how interconnected efforts contribute to overall outcomes. Synergy also shows how correlation and causation can be at play, as the combination of actions not only correlates with success but, when done effectively, becomes the direct cause of it.
Let’s say you’re launching a new business. You might attend industry seminars, develop relationships with mentors, invest in the latest equipment, and market your business online. Each of these actions contributes to your success, but none of them works in isolation. It’s the combined effect of these efforts—the synergy—that leads to long-term success. In this case, the success is a result of multiple causes working together, rather than just one. Understanding how these factors complement each other helps you better attribute which actions were most effective and see the correlation between efforts and outcomes.
A non-business example could be personal health and fitness. Imagine someone who wants to improve their overall health. They might start eating healthier, exercising regularly, getting enough sleep, and reducing stress through mindfulness practices. Each of these activities individually contributes to better health, but when they work together, the overall effect is far more significant. The synergy between healthy habits amplifies the positive outcomes, creating a lasting improvement in well-being. In this case, each activity correlates with improved health, and together, they form a combined cause that leads to greater overall health outcomes.
The Problems of Improper Attribution and the Benefits of Getting It Right
Misattribution can lead to serious problems in both personal and business decisions. If we incorrectly assign blame or credit, we risk making decisions based on faulty reasoning. This might lead to cutting back on effective efforts, as I discussed in my article Focus on What Matters with Decision-Based Analytics. For example, when business owners misunderstand what’s driving success, they might cancel effective strategies, thinking they’re unproductive.
On the other hand, proper attribution brings clarity. When you can accurately determine what factors are contributing to success or failure, you can make informed decisions. You can invest in what’s working and adjust what isn’t. In my experience, this approach strengthens not only business outcomes but also relationships, as people feel their contributions are recognized accurately.
The Challenges of Attribution, Causation, and Correlation
Determining what causes success or failure isn’t always easy, and we face several challenges when trying to do so:
- Multiple Influences: Life and business are full of contributing factors, many of which are beyond our control. It’s tempting to focus on one, but rarely is it that simple.
- Unseen Efforts: Often, the most important work happens behind the scenes, making it harder to assign credit. Preparation, support, and effort can all be invisible drivers of success.
- Time Lags: The effects of actions don’t always appear immediately. There may be a delay between the work you do and the outcomes you see, which complicates attribution.
- Bias and Assumptions: People tend to see what they expect or want to see. We often give credit to what’s most obvious, without digging deeper to uncover less visible influences.
- Impatience for Results: Just as in business, people often want immediate results from their efforts. When we don’t see quick results, we’re tempted to attribute failure to the wrong cause.
- Blame and Credit: It’s human nature that most people want to take credit when things are going well and pass the blame when things don’t go according to plan.
How to Do a Better Job of Attribution
To better understand and assign credit or blame in both life and business, here’s a few suggestions to improve how we handle attribution, causation, and correlation:
- Look at the Whole Picture: Don’t rush to conclusions based on the most obvious correlation. Step back and consider all possible causes before making an attribution. Note – I know we’re using some big words, but hopefully by now you’re comfortable with the terms attribution, causation, and correlation. We could have just as easily have said “don’t jump to conclusions because you saw it on Facebook”.
- Distinguish Between Causation and Correlation: Be mindful that just because two events happen together doesn’t mean one caused the other. Understanding this distinction helps avoid misattribution.
- Consider Both Tangible and Intangible Factors: It’s easier to focus on measurable results, but don’t overlook intangible elements, like leadership or support, which play a significant role in causation.
- Challenge Your Assumptions: Ask yourself whether the evidence supports your attribution or if you’re simply confirming a correlation that fits your preconceived notions.
- Ask for Multiple Perspectives: Gaining insights from others can help reveal causes and correlations you may have missed, leading to more accurate attributions.
- Be Patient: Sometimes the effects of your efforts aren’t immediately clear. Avoid snap decisions and allow time to assess the full impact of various causes and correlations.
A Challenge: Think Beyond the Surface
In both personal and professional life, we are constantly assigning credit and blame, often without considering the full picture. It’s time to think for a change! AI-amplified social media content is widespread, particularly during this election season. It’s more important than ever to take a step back and consider the facts. We’re bombarded with opinions, perspectives, and misinformation designed to influence how we think and feel, but it’s up to us to think critically and avoid making knee-jerk judgments based on surface-level information and ridiculous claims.
Dig deeper when evaluating information and outcomes—whether in your business or personal life. Don’t just accept things as they’re presented or just because a political candidate or friend told you it was so. Consider multiple viewpoints, analyze the available data, and look for credible information and underlying causes before forming conclusions. In so doing, you’ll gain a more accurate understanding of what drives success and failure in life. The data is out there, you just have to find it and make sense of it.
And for those business and nonprofit leaders interested in understanding how attribution works specifically in marketing, I’ve written a detailed article on the subject. You can find it on my other blog: Marketing Attribution 101: What It Is and How to Measure It. I actually wrote that one first, then tailored the message for this article. They’re meant to be companion pieces.
PS – I know there’s almost 2,200 words in this article. It’s healthy to read (and write) more long-form content! Thanks for sticking around. – JD
[Joe Domaleski, a Fayette County resident for 25+ years, is the owner of Country Fried Creative – an award-winning digital marketing agency located in Peachtree City. His company was the Fayette Chamber’s 2021 Small Business of the Year. Joe is a husband, father of three grown children, and proud Army veteran. He has an MBA from Georgia State University and enjoys sharing his perspectives drawing from thirty years of business leadership experience. Joe is a recipient of the Peachtree City Rotary Club Business Leader of the Year Award for 2024. Sign up for the Country Fried Creative newsletter to get marketing and business articles directly in your inbox. You can connect with Joe directly on LinkedIn or follow his new blog Marketing Data Science for more insights and updates.]
