Nobody could

have predicted the chain of events that unfolded after the polls closed

Nov. 7.

And so it is

with some trepidation that I contemplate laying down some predictions

for 2001 during this lull between Christmas and New Year's. But dangling

a brand new year in front of a columnist is like dangling a big fat government

contract in front of one of Bill Campbell's friends... I just can't resist.

The first question

on many people's minds is: When do we get that tax cut Dubya promised

to every single American who pays taxes?

That's going

to depend in part on how difficult the minority party in Congress wants

to make it. The president-elect has signaled that, despite the fact he

didn't win the popular vote, he is going to try to do what he promised

and push through a meaningful, i.e. large, tax cut.

It's easy to

predict how it will go. The Democratic leadership will protest that Bush's

tax cut "gives" too much to the rich and not enough to "working

Americans."

Bush's people

will respond that the cuts are fair because all tax brackets will be reduced

biggest reduction. That doesn't mean anyone has "given" them

anything. It's money that belongs to them in the first place.

That's the

form the battle will take. Democrats will be able to hold up passage of

the cut until Republicans compromise, which probably will mean a smaller

tax cut than they want, and a larger percentage cut going to the lower

tax brackets.

In other words,

the inequity that already exists will get worse, and the disincentive

to achieve will be reinforced.

As to when,

it will probably be March or April.

Another question:

Will Bush be able to "reach across the aisle," as he said, and

be effective?

I predict he

will reach across the aisle and get his hand slapped, and I'm not talking

about a high five. If dealing with Democrats in the Texas legislature

was like wrestling with a German shepherd, dealing with Tom Daschle and

Dick Gephardt will be like wrestling with a mother grizzly that just managed

to get free from a trap and thinks you're responsible.

Whether Bush

is effective will depend, to some degree at least, on his ability to compromise

and work with the other side. To a much greater degree, it will depend

upon his ability to coerce the other side.

It's often

said that Reagan had a great statesmanlike ability to bulid coalitions

and get things done the Reagan Democrats and all that. But his success

was due largely to a lot of behind-the-scenes arm-twisting done by the

likes of Newt Gingrich.

For instance,

in order to get Reagan's tax cuts through Congress, Republican leaders

organized a gargantuan nationwide phone campaign in which supporters of

Republican congressmen phoned friends in Democratic districts, and the

friends phoned and sent letters to their Democratic congressmen.

Democrats in

conservative districts could not ignore the avalanche of constituent mail,

and were forced to vote with Reagan even though they were punished by

the party.

Diplomacy will

help, but it will be much more effective if backed up by an ability and

willingness to fight in the trenches.

That's true

in foreign policy as well, the next big question mark. Will Bush be able

to deal with all the hot spots in the world and reinforce our alliances?

I think this

will be his strongest suit, not because he is experienced, but because

he is surrounding himself with experience, and because he, like his predecessor

Bill Clinton, will do well in one-on-one meetings with world leaders.

He'll have

to bite the bullet, excuse the expression, and spend a whole lot of money

getting the military back into shape after eight years of neglect. If

he does that, and if he listens to his advisers and acts decisively when

called upon, he'll do fine in this area.

Will Congress

swing back to Democratic control in two years? Probably, unless Bush succeeds

beyond our wildest dreams in building a concensus out of the division

that has developed during the election.

Democrats feel

the White House was stolen from them, just as Republicans would have felt

if it had gone the other way. And now Democrats will be energized. Look

for some seriously dirty campaigns, unprecedented spending and some well-thought-out

strategy.

In fact, work

on the strategy began at 9 a.m. Wednesday, Nov. 8.

Well, those

are my predictions on the national political scene. Sorry they're not

more positive, but I hope I'm fairly accurate. If I'm not, I'm guessing

it's going to be because what actually happens is more negative, not more

positive, than what I've predicted.

Oh, the economy?

That'll be fine, though it will be some time before the stock market sorts

out which dot-coms have staying power and which don't.

I'd expect

a mini-recession early in 2001, followed by a reduction in interest rates,

which will get things back on an even keel.