If the latest public

opinion polls are any sign, then the 2000 presidential

election may be the closest in history.

And, that is exactly what

Democratic Vice President Al Gore and Texas Republican

Governor George W. Bush are gearing up for.

The polls say the two men

are in a statistical dead heat, though the actual figures

give Gore a slight edge - and this is ironic

considering that just a few weeks ago Bush had an

eight-point lead.

But, contrary to what so

many contemporary voters believe, the next president will

not be chosen based on his percentage of the popular vote

total.

Constitutionally, elections

are decided by who can win the most electoral votes.

Since each state is allotted one electoral vote for each

of its members in the U. S. Congress, that would indicate

the big states (with the most electoral votes) would be

the battleground.

But, that is not

necessarily true.

In the first place, both

men have bases on which to build - and those bases

account for about 40 percent of the 270 electoral votes

they need. (The bases are easy to figure out: Look at the

results of the last three presidential election and any

state which voted for the same party in each is likely to

do the same again.)

The one exception to that

rule of thumb is California - which did vote

Republican in 1988 but has been pretty solidly Democrat

since. Besides, consider the results of the presidential

preference primary there this year: Gore easily

out-polled Bush in the voting which was open to all and

about the best the Republicans can hope for is to force

Gore to spend up some of his campaign funds there.

So, Gore starts off with

154 electoral votes and Bush starts off with 132.

Four other states which

have not voted Republican for president since 1988 are

Connecticut, Illinois, New Hampshire, and Tennessee;

since they are leaning heavily toward Gore now, the

likelihood is that he would pick up another 45 electoral

votes.

The easiest way for Gore to

win then would be to pick up the 69 electoral votes in

Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida - all of which

Clinton carried - and one other small state.

But, Gore probably won't

carry Florida, where Bush's brother is governor (unless,

of course, he picks that state's Sen. Bob Graham as his

running mate and makes it competitive), and he may not

carry Pennsylvania - particularly if Bush picks the

extremely popular Republican Gov. Tom Ridgeway to be his

vice president.

Michigan with 18 votes is

likely to go for Gore, and Georgia with 13 just might go

for their neighbor from the state which borders us.

The only other states with

double-digit electoral votes which have flirted with both

the Democrats and the Republicans in the last three

presidential elections are New Jersey (15), Missouri

(11), and Maryland (10).

(Maybe that is a good

reason for Gore to consider Bill Bradley as his running

mate, or Bush to consider Kit Bond as his.)

Then, there are a whole lot

of little states with just a handful of electoral votes

each.

Putting the puzzle together

to reach the magic number of 270 electoral votes is the

challenge which awaits both Bush and Gore.

It will not be an easy

puzzle to solve.

[Lee N. Howell is an

award-winning writer who has been observing and

commenting upon politics and society in the Southern

Crescent, the state, and nation for more than a quarter

of a century.]