On a recent drive with my wife up to South Carolina to celebrate our son’s twenty-first birthday, I had a bunch of windshield time to reflect on the amazing journey.

In 1998, we purchased our first house on the sixteenth green at Rivers Edge Golf Course in Clayton County. We bought a house on the street next to the elementary school.

In 1998 Clayton County, the school system had 41,680 students, Fayette had 18,131 and Coweta 14,532.

Flash forward to 2023: Clayton had 52,732 with Fayette at 20,063, and Coweta at 22,811. While Clayton grew with a larger number of actual students, the growth rate on Coweta was higher on a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 1.7% per year versus .9% for Coweta and .4% for Fayette.

Looking at these numbers, I dug a little deeper for perspective and decided to break it into two ten-year periods (1998 – 2008), (2008 – 2018), and the last five years (2018 – 2023). By coincidence these “eras” tell a story.

The first period, from 1998 to 2008. This period ended with the first ESPLOST passing and the building of Rivers Elementary which never opened and later sold to what is now Trilith Studios.

In this period, Fayette’s student population had grown at a CAGR rate of 2.3% versus 2.4% for Clayton and 4.3% for Coweta. Cost per student grew at a CAGR rate of 6.2% in Fayette and 5.2% in both Clayton and Coweta. The local share of public-school funding increased by 7.8% in Fayette, 6.9% in Coweta and 6.1% in Clayton.

In 2009, a major recession hit the economy with the schools feeling the effects as Fayette reorganized and closed four schools, furloughing teachers, and raising class sizes. In this ten-year period, student population leveled out with Fayette shrinking 1.1% a year, and the other counties less than one-half of one percent. Costs over the period were also at one percent average growth in Coweta with Fayette and Claton at 0.8%.

These numbers are a little misleading as there were major cuts in the early years that were “recovered” in later years, thus masking the beginning of a growth trend. Also, during this time, the state of Georgia adjusted its QBE funding formula which has resulted in state funding becoming less of the total student funding equation.

Fayette’s local share grew at 1.2% while the state funding grew at 0.8%. Expenditure per student also grew at 0.8% per annum over the ten-year period.

The last period (2018 – 2023) is the one that is most alarming. The public in Fayette has voted for a homestead exemption limiting property valuation growth at 3%. At the same time, the tax milage is at or near the maximum in both Clayton and Fayette. Expenditures per student is up 5.1% in Fayette, 5% in Coweta and 7.4% in Clayton.

Its important to note that the priciest expenditure increases for base pay scale, benefits, and pensions are not controlled by the local school system but by the State of Georgia. At the same time, the state share of student funding has grown at 3.4% for Fayette and 5.0% in Clayton.

This year, Fayette has had to maneuver its finances to meet its obligations due to rising costs with less funds available. This resulted in a reduction of approximately 70 positions and now a slightly higher school tax millage rate. The expenditure growth curve, when compared with revenue growth suggests that there are more challenges ahead.

In the recent election, Ballot Measure #1 that creates a homestead exemption to limit property value growth passed with nearly 63 percent of the vote. While Fayette already had this exemption, now other systems in Georgia, such as Clayton, will now face the challenges of rising costs and less revenue that Fayette already faces.

Solutions are needed on the cost side, but the challenge is that over 80% of school costs is personnel. Revenue solutions are needed and may include moving away from a property tax solution toward a mixed approach that either sits along-side or repurposes ESPLOST.

However, the data suggests that the time to chart an alternative course is already here and we all need to work together.

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[Neil Sullivan is a finance/accounting executive and CPA. He recently moved from Peachtree City to Coweta County. He has been active in public school related issues in Fayette County, leading three E-SPLOST initiatives as chairman of Fayette Citizens for Children. He has appeared previously on these pages in letters to the editor.]